Over the next ten years, blockbuster drugs will underperform industry-wide growth and fail to reverse the growth crisis. In their place, new-engines drugs, products for more severe conditions with a higher margin of therapeutic efficacy, will emerge as the leading force in industry growth, accounting for over 60% of industry dollar growth. They'll be more commonly discovered, less susceptible to generic competition and payor price pressures, and more compelling for prescribers. Companies should immediately begin to reassess their portfolios and refocus their discovery and development efforts. Key actions include giving new-engine drugs a more accurate weighting and letting go of the blockbuster model.

GSK achieved a first-in-class market oncology launch in 2020, but will have to increase that hit rate in order to fulfil its blockbuster ambitions.